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Lifespan of humanity
Oct. 15th, 2007 01:56 pmMankind is a pretty damn parasitic species and our planet is more and more groaning under the strain of coping with us as we sprawl all over it. Now, doom and eco-rants aside we're more than likely have to get off this rock eventually and find a new one to infest as we will eventually use up/render unusable all the resources we have lying around in our backyard.
Presently most of the other planets/moons in this system aren't particularly promising but more and more systems within several light years are looking likely. But how likely?
100 years ago travelling over anything beyond 30 miles an hour was seen as pretty damn dangerous, nigh on suicidal in fact so this whole light speed barrier thing shouldn't be a problem if we can think our way around it, all it needs is a greed or war related reason and we'll be right on it in no time I reckon.
So how long until we reach planet X? That's the point of this ramble; I reckon there are three key areas we need to develop...
Space tech: Construction of rockets, housing etc to transport and survive elsewhere.
Physics: Separate from Space Tech as this is the theoretical stuff we need to make practical to actually get from A-Z without going via B-Y, so to speak.
Biology: Survival on other systems with limited resources (O2 recycling) and ultimately Terraforming.
We're not doing too bad so far, we've put a man on the moon, we can predict motions of every solar body we can detect and we can break down most things into components that work as a kind of template for designing it. But we have a long way to go.
How long? That, again, is the question.
Numbercrunching things down into generational increments, Space tech wise, we're pretty basic, physics, we're not too shabby, but nowhere near where we need to be, we're slacking a bit in Biology but we're learning. I reckon, throwing a number into the air that we'll need (Guesstimating) at least three generational increases in our understanding of science in each of these areas before we can get to planet X, if it's governments, mutant offspring of llamas or starbucks that does it I don't know; I'm just asking when.
So; generational increases.
Space flight
Not too bad so far. We'll take the first balloon flight by Bartolomeu de Gusmão in 1709 as a marker for starting space technology and then we can take the first moon landing (Yes, I believe it happened, shush) of 1969 as the next marker. Which is to say, basic flight to moon landing is a pretty good step. Total elapsed time for generation shift; 260 years.
Physics
I'm going to take Isaac newtons publication of Principia Mathematica as a first stepping point of physics in 1687 as a startpoint for physics, the next one will be old Albert E's work on relativity/mass-energy equivalence and I'll take his 1921 Noble Prize as a time marker. Elapsed time: 234 years
Biology
A bit more difficult, at least for me as I know very little about it... but plucking a name from history I'll take Leonhard Fuchs, whose Historia Stirpium (History of plants) was published in Basel in 1542 and Charles Darwins 1859 book On the Origin of Species as the second. Elapsed time: 317 years.
So for three generational changes (assuming linear rate of change, blah blah blah) whereby I hope we can build spacecraft that can cross galaxies, understand how to power said spacecraft and then terraform what we find when we get there it will be...
1969 + 260*3 = 2749 (Space flight)
1921 + 234*3 = 2623 (Physics)
1859 + 317*3 = 2810 (Biology)
A few years to wait then. If however we assume each generational change takes half as long again due to advancements in science, technology and having more people around to think about it...
1969 + 260 + 130 + 65 = 2424 (Space flight)
1921 + 234 + 117 + 59 = 2331 (Physics)
1859 + 317 + 159 + 80 = 2415 (Biology)
For an average date just to give us a single final figure of: 2390 for when we get our arses into another solar system.
See you then!
The contents of this post are copyright meeeeeeeeee, no reproduction without paying me fat wadges of cash, so there.
Presently most of the other planets/moons in this system aren't particularly promising but more and more systems within several light years are looking likely. But how likely?
100 years ago travelling over anything beyond 30 miles an hour was seen as pretty damn dangerous, nigh on suicidal in fact so this whole light speed barrier thing shouldn't be a problem if we can think our way around it, all it needs is a greed or war related reason and we'll be right on it in no time I reckon.
So how long until we reach planet X? That's the point of this ramble; I reckon there are three key areas we need to develop...
Space tech: Construction of rockets, housing etc to transport and survive elsewhere.
Physics: Separate from Space Tech as this is the theoretical stuff we need to make practical to actually get from A-Z without going via B-Y, so to speak.
Biology: Survival on other systems with limited resources (O2 recycling) and ultimately Terraforming.
We're not doing too bad so far, we've put a man on the moon, we can predict motions of every solar body we can detect and we can break down most things into components that work as a kind of template for designing it. But we have a long way to go.
How long? That, again, is the question.
Numbercrunching things down into generational increments, Space tech wise, we're pretty basic, physics, we're not too shabby, but nowhere near where we need to be, we're slacking a bit in Biology but we're learning. I reckon, throwing a number into the air that we'll need (Guesstimating) at least three generational increases in our understanding of science in each of these areas before we can get to planet X, if it's governments, mutant offspring of llamas or starbucks that does it I don't know; I'm just asking when.
So; generational increases.
Space flight
Not too bad so far. We'll take the first balloon flight by Bartolomeu de Gusmão in 1709 as a marker for starting space technology and then we can take the first moon landing (Yes, I believe it happened, shush) of 1969 as the next marker. Which is to say, basic flight to moon landing is a pretty good step. Total elapsed time for generation shift; 260 years.
Physics
I'm going to take Isaac newtons publication of Principia Mathematica as a first stepping point of physics in 1687 as a startpoint for physics, the next one will be old Albert E's work on relativity/mass-energy equivalence and I'll take his 1921 Noble Prize as a time marker. Elapsed time: 234 years
Biology
A bit more difficult, at least for me as I know very little about it... but plucking a name from history I'll take Leonhard Fuchs, whose Historia Stirpium (History of plants) was published in Basel in 1542 and Charles Darwins 1859 book On the Origin of Species as the second. Elapsed time: 317 years.
So for three generational changes (assuming linear rate of change, blah blah blah) whereby I hope we can build spacecraft that can cross galaxies, understand how to power said spacecraft and then terraform what we find when we get there it will be...
1969 + 260*3 = 2749 (Space flight)
1921 + 234*3 = 2623 (Physics)
1859 + 317*3 = 2810 (Biology)
A few years to wait then. If however we assume each generational change takes half as long again due to advancements in science, technology and having more people around to think about it...
1969 + 260 + 130 + 65 = 2424 (Space flight)
1921 + 234 + 117 + 59 = 2331 (Physics)
1859 + 317 + 159 + 80 = 2415 (Biology)
For an average date just to give us a single final figure of: 2390 for when we get our arses into another solar system.
See you then!
The contents of this post are copyright meeeeeeeeee, no reproduction without paying me fat wadges of cash, so there.
